CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--In his first 2013 newsletter, Deputy Chief Economist Adolfo Laurenti delivers his global macroeconomic outlook for the year, focusing on Europe but expanding coverage to China and Japan. Laurenti has shifted his focus closer to the core Eurozone countries, questioning the strength of the French economy: “We are very concerned that 2013 will be the year in which France leaves the European core to join the periphery. The country is in a weak fiscal position and deteriorating… How long will Germany vouch for its partner’s policies? And how long before financial markets question the German guarantee of France’s fiscal health?” Read the latest newsletter or watch a video.
“With GDP expanding at 7.9%, we anticipate only marginal improvement over last year and definitely no strong reacceleration in economic growth… the export sector maintains a dominant role, despite attempts to tilt growth in favor of internal demand.”
Across the English Channel, this economist looks at the United Kingdom and forecasts a better 2013 than most. That may be because he shrugs off the idea that the U.K. could actually leave the European Union (EU). “The idea that Britain may be better off leaving the EU is delusional; the gains from an exit are also grossly overstated,” according to Laurenti.
China, which once seemed unstoppable, is landing softly without much applause. Laurenti’s forecast is lukewarm: “With GDP expanding at 7.9%, we anticipate only marginal improvement over last year and definitely no strong reacceleration in economic growth… the export sector maintains a dominant role, despite attempts to tilt growth in favor of internal demand.” But just as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said this past summer about the euro, we can expect China to try "whatever it takes. “
For more, the January 2013 issue of Themes on the Global Markets, as well as archived issues, can be found at mesirowfinancial.com.
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