OMAHA, Neb.--(EON: Enhanced Online News)--TD Ameritrade, Inc. (“TD Ameritrade”), a broker-dealer subsidiary of TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation (Nasdaq: AMTD) is today releasing the Investor Movement Index® reading for November 2016. The Investor Movement Index, or the IMXSM, is a proprietary, behavior-based index created by TD Ameritrade that aggregates Main Street investor positions and activity to measure what investors are actually doing and how they are positioned in the markets.
“After the so-called post-election ‘Trump Bump,’ the holiday shopping season started off on a positive note”
The November 2016 Investor Movement Index for the four weeks ending November 25, 2016, reveals:
- Reading: 5.53 (compared to 5.83 in October)
- Trend direction: Negative
- Trend length: 1 month
- Score relative to historic ranges: High
The IMX fell 5.15 percent to a score of 5.53 as markets reached new highs. A slight uptick in actual volatility of the S&P 500 during the period reduced the relative volatility of many widely held names in TD Ameritrade accounts, like Apple Inc. (AAPL), and net selling also helped clients rotate into lower exposure positions, further pushing down the IMX reading.
“After the so-called post-election ‘Trump Bump,’ the holiday shopping season started off on a positive note,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist for TD Ameritrade. “And interestingly enough, Black Friday and Cyber Monday trading among our clients did not follow the usual patterns where most of the top traded stocks are Retail or Internet/Technology based companies. Several top traded stocks were Natural Resources based (mining, steel, oil, shipping), which could be driven by the President-elect’s plan to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure.”
“We also saw decreasing prices on U.S. Treasuries in November, which pushed their yields higher. These lower prices on current U.S. Treasuries could be an indication that the markets are anticipating a rise in the Federal Reserve’s key interest rate in December.”
The dip in the IMX came during a period when all the major equity market indices set new all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased more than 5 percent while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite each gained about 4 percent. The Russell 2000, which tracks a broad swath of small and mid-cap stocks, rose more than 13 percent in November.
Airline stocks Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV), Delta Airlines (DAL) and United Continental Holdings (UAL) were net sold as their prices rose in November. A decline in crude oil prices from October’s year-to-date highs appeared to have a positive effect on airline companies’ share prices. Net selling also continued in the financial sector for a second month. Both Citigroup Inc. (C) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) were net sold as their prices rose sharply in November. In the basic materials sector, Freeport-McMoran Inc. (FCX) and Chevron Corp. (CVX) each reached new year-to-date highs and were net sold as well. Additional popular names sold included Netflix.com Inc. (NFLX), Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC).
Despite being net sellers of equities in November, TD Ameritrade clients continued net buying in some of the names that have been popular in recent months. Dividend payers Verizon Communications (VZ) and AT&T Inc. (T) have seen net buying in the last two IMX periods and were net buys again in November. Each saw their stock prices rebound after declines earlier in the month. Facebook Inc. (FB) and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) have also been popular buys. Both companies’ share prices declined in November after setting year-to-date highs in October. Net buying also occurred in both Under Armour Inc. (UA) and Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) following their earnings announcements in late October. Additional popular names bought included Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL, GOOG) and Amgen Inc. (AMGN).
About the IMX
The IMX value is calculated based on a complex proprietary formula. Each month, TD Ameritrade pulls a sample from its client base of 6 million funded accounts that includes all accounts that completed a trade in the past month. The holdings and positions of this statistically significant sample are evaluated to calculate individual scores, and the median of those scores represents the monthly IMX.
For more information on the Investor Movement Index, including historical IMX data going back to December 2010, to view the full report from November 2016, or to sign up for future IMX news alerts, please visit www.tdameritrade.com/IMX. Additionally, TD Ameritrade clients can chart the IMX using the symbol $IMX in either the thinkorswim® or TD Ameritrade Mobile Trader platforms.
Inclusion of specific security names in this commentary does not constitute a recommendation from TD Ameritrade to buy, sell, or hold.
Past performance of a security, strategy or index is no guarantee of future results or investment success.
Historical data should not be used alone when making investment decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider your individual financial position and goals before making an independent investment decision.
The IMX is not a tradable index. The IMX should not be used as an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or financial performance for TD Ameritrade.
For the latest TD Ameritrade news and information, follow the company on Twitter, @TDAmeritradePR.
Source: TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation
About TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation
Millions of investors and independent registered investment advisors (RIAs) have turned to TD Ameritrade’s (NASDAQ: AMTD) technology, people and education to help make investing and trading easier to understand and do. Online or over the phone. In a branch or with an independent RIA. First-timer or sophisticated trader. Our clients want to take control, and we help them decide how - bringing Wall Street to Main Street for more than 40 years. An official sponsor of the 2016 U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Teams, as well as an official sponsor of the National Football League, TD Ameritrade has time and again been recognized as a leader in investment services. Please visit TD Ameritrade's newsroom or www.amtd.com for more information, or read our stories at http://freshaccounts.amtd.com.