SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(EON: Enhanced Online News)--TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,366,900 units in November, up 3.6 percent from a year ago. However, adjusting for two more selling days this year than in November 2015, sales may decline 4.7 percent on a daily selling rate (DSR) basis.
“The early launch of Black Friday sales events is helping offset declines in fleet sales this month, as the retail sales environment remains strong for new car sales”
This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.66 million units for the month, down from an 18.25 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should decline 3.8 percent to 1,189,914 adjusted for selling days.
“The early launch of Black Friday sales events is helping offset declines in fleet sales this month, as the retail sales environment remains strong for new car sales,” said Eric Lyman, TrueCar’s chief industry analyst. “Incentives are also down slightly as automakers begin to address supply side imbalances with planned reductions in vehicle production.”
Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,475 per vehicle in November, up 13 percent from a year ago, and down 1.4 percent from October 2016.
“With only one month of sales to go until the end of the year, it looks like we will not break the annual record for auto sales set in 2015, but from a historical context, 2016 will go down as a blockbuster year in terms of new car sales and the overall health of the automotive industry,” said Lyman.
General Motors continues to make gains in market share even as they continue to pull back on sales to the fleet channel.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index is at 93.8 this month compared to 87.2 in October which further underscores the strength of a healthy US economy; the October unemployment rate came in at an eight year low of 4.9 percent in combination with a favorable average gas price of $2.13 recorded for this current week.
Other key findings for November:
- Registration mix is expected to be 87.1 percent retail sales and 12.9 percent fleet versus 86.3 percent retail and 13.7 percent fleet last November.
- Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 2,857,365 down 6.1 percent from November 2015.
Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:
Total Unit Sales
% Change vs.
Total Market Share
|Manufacturer||November 2016 Forecast||November 2015||October 2016|
Retail Unit Sales
Incentive per Unit
Incentive per Unit
Incentive per Unit
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)
TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 12,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over one third of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, go to www.truecar.com. Follow us on Facebook or Twitter.
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